Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Q1 Performance Preview Comment: Q1 Performance Forecast Exceeds Expected Growth Ability to Be Validated Again

Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Q1 Performance Preview Comment: Q1 Performance Forecast Exceeds Expected Growth Ability to Be Validated Again
This report reads: The company announced the main operating data, revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded market expectations. The current price of Moutai is stable, and tight supply and demand will not change in the short term.It is expected that 重庆耍耍网 the target growth will be achieved through the dual promotion of direct sales ratio and product structure. Investment points: Investment advice: Q1 performance forecast exceeds market expectations. The market believes that the progress of Q1 investment has doubts about whether it can maintain high growth. The company once again proved the growth ability with data.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is maintained at 33.36, 40.33, 47.52 yuan, due to the certainty of performance growth, raised the target price to 1,000 yuan, corresponding to 30XPE in 2019, increase holdings. Moutai Q1 shipments are estimated at 8,300 tons.The actual shipment in 2018Q1 was 8,745 tons, and the caliber of the report was 7,500 tons. According to channel feedback, Feitian Maotai did not resend the goods stranded in 2018 in Q1 of 2019. The actual shipment is expected to be basically consistent with the caliber of the report.Revenue in 2019Q1 will increase by 20%. Assuming the same ton price, it is expected that the shipment will exceed 9,000 tons, which is more than the actual shipment in 2018Q1.Taking into account that after the Spring Festival the price of Moutai did not fall but rose, the direct supply actually re-flowed to the market, and may be sold directly to large group customers.Assume that the ton price has increased by 10% due to the increase in direct sales. It is estimated that the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2019 will be 8,300 tons. The elasticity of revenue growth in 2019 is due to the increase in direct sales ratios and the growth of non-standard products.Channel feedback for non-standard Q1 has not yet been ramped up, and its impact may be reflected in the quarterly increase in refined wine revenue at the end of 2018.Assume that the increase in income is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of self-employment, which will increase the overall volume of Moutai liquor by 10% and the price by 10%.In terms of advance receipts, considering that the non-standard initial cargo payment has been completed at the end of March, and that the spring candy period has been scheduled for April to June, it is expected that the Q1 advance receipts will continue to increase. The profit growth rate is 10 pct higher than the income growth rate. It is expected that the decrease in selling expenses in 2019 will be accompanied by a downward adjustment, and the performance will be elastically transmitted.The 2018 annual report showed a negative increase in selling expenses. We believe that the decrease in expenses may be 成都桑拿网 related to the control of the release of the series of wine expenses, or it may be the result of the cancellation of 437 dealers.Due to the funding requirements of Moutai, Moutai has strict internal controls. It is expected that sales expenses will still decrease, and the reduction and reduction of 3pct will be implemented in April. The profit elasticity in 2019 is still high. Risk reminder: The rapid increase in the price of Moutai brings pressure on public opinion and policy risks.


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