Biological Stock (600201): P3 Lab Consolidates Competitive Advantage, Meets Turning Point in 2020
Event On February 3, 2020, the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Jinyu Baoling Animal Biosafety Level 3 Laboratory received relevant approvals from the Ministry of Agriculture and agreed to its military-related experimental activities of highly pathogenic animal pathogenic microorganisms, including research on foot-and-mouth disease vaccineAnd efficacy evaluation tests (virus isolation and culture, identification, and animal infection experiments), conducting activities such as virus isolation and culture, identification, animal infection, and efficacy evaluation tests involved in African swine fever vaccine research.
On January 21, 2020, the company issued a 2019 performance forecast.
In 2019, the company realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies2.
10 to 2.
50 ‰, reducing 66 annually.
The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in Q4 2019 was -0.
38 to 0.
02 million, a decrease of 97 per year.
Our analysis and judgments have significantly reduced the number of pigs in stock. The company’s sales scale The company’s main business is the research and development, production and sales of veterinary biological products. The product categories cover pig, poultry, anti-step series animal vaccines, and pig vaccines.Products and market-based businesses account for a relatively high proportion.
Reported numbers, due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, domestic pig production has declined significantly.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January to September 2019, the number of capable sow stocks has continued to decrease, and by the end of September, the number of capable sow stocks has decreased by 38.
9%, since October the number of sows can reach the bottom and rebound.
The hog inventory continued to decline from January to October, and the end of October the hog inventory exceeded the decrease by 41.
4%, the number of pigs in November also stopped 南京夜网 falling and rebounded month-on-month.
In the early stage, the expansion of downstream pig breeding industry production capacity affected the company’s sales of pig vaccines, and the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 was 2.
10 to 2.
50 ‰, reducing 66 annually.
The bottom of hog production capacity has resumed, and the competitive landscape has improved. In terms of performance of the leader, the hog inventory is expected to improve. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December 2019, the national sow production capacity will increase by 2 compared to the previous month.
2%, 3 months of chain growth has been achieved.
The recovery of production capacity of large-scale farms has accelerated. In December, the number of live pigs and 杭州桑拿网 breeding sows in pig farms with an annual production volume of more than 5,000 pigs in the country increased from the previous month.
7% and 3.
4%, both increased for 4 consecutive months.
In terms of hog prices, the average national hog price in January 2020 will be in the range of 34-36 yuan / kg. In 2020, we expect the hog price is expected to be around 28-30 yuan / kg, and about 18-20 yuan / kg is still obvious in 2019increase.
The profitability of pig farming is better than in the historical year.
The downstream production capacity is restored and the profit growth is increased, and the demand for high-quality vaccines will increase significantly, especially the large-scale farm capacity recovery is fast. For biological shares covering nearly 10,000 large-scale farms, vaccine sales will resume rapid growth.
At the same time, the further decline in demand for swine vaccines in 2019 will also have a shuffle effect on the industry. Small and medium-sized enterprises with difficult business operations will be eliminated, and the market share and profitability of leading companies will continue to increase.
The company’s research and development, leading technology in multiple dimensions, and rich categories, are optimistic about the long-term growth of biological shares. The research and development and technological advantages are leading the industry. The technology is at the forefront of the industry. The use of high-quality products in the foot-and-mouth disease market seedlings market share continues to remain the first;After the influenza vaccine field, the company’s core product structure has been further increased. In the future, the titer of products such as avian influenza vaccine will be optimized through existing mature technologies. At the same time, market-oriented sales channels will be strengthened. The market share of poultry seedlings is expected to advance steadily.Vaccine has become an important large single product; through the establishment of a joint venture with Kyoritsu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., pet vaccines have also entered the incubation period.
The company still has a lot of room for improvement in the future and is optimistic about the company’s long-term growth.
Recently, the Jinyu Baoling Animal Safety Third-Class Laboratory’s military highly pathogenic animal pathogenic microorganism experimental activities have been approved by the Ministry of Agriculture, and the company has become the first domestic animal vaccine that can simultaneously carry out research and development related to foot-and-mouth disease vaccine and agricultural swine fever vaccine.enterprise.
We believe that the obtaining of this approval will promote the company’s research and development capabilities, technological innovation and development, and the cooperation between industry, university and research, and will further promote the company’s core competitiveness and industry influence.
Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s revenue to be 12 in 2019-2020.
28, 15.23 ppm, an increase of -35 in ten years.
53% and 24.
55%; net profit attributable to mother is 2.
0.6 billion, an increase of -69.
10%; corresponding PE is 101.
3x and 46.
4x, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; the swine fever epidemic affects the industry inventory to continue to deteriorate.