Sany Heavy Industry (600031) Comments: Performance in line with expectations; raise market cap target to 180 billion yuan

Sany Heavy Industry (600031) Comments: Performance in line with expectations; raise market cap target to 180 billion yuan

The company released a performance forecast, which is expected to realize a net profit attributable to mothers of US $ 10.8-111.8 billion in 2019, an increase of 77% -93% each year. It is expected to deduct non-net profit of US $ 10-111.2 billion, an increase of 66% -86%.

  Comment on the performance of the hub slightly exceeds market consensus expectations, in line with our expectations; 2020 performance progress continues to exceed expectations. The company’s 2019 performance pre-increasing center is a net profit of US $ 11.3 billion, and the previous wind consensus is expected to be a net profit of US $ 11 billion. The company’s pre-increasingThe performance center slightly exceeded market consensus.

  In 2019, the company’s sales of excavation machinery, concrete machinery, hoisting machinery, piling machinery and other equipment continued to increase, and profitability increased significantly.

Driven by the demand for infrastructure, the country has strengthened environmental governance, the demand for equipment renewal has increased, and the artificial replacement effect has driven the construction of the machinery industry.

The demand for renewal maintains a high industry boom, and the share of Sany City is still increasing in the construction machinery industry: benefiting from downstream replacement demand, infrastructure support, manual replacement and other factors, the construction machinery industry maintains high growth.

The current industry competition pattern is better than the previous cycle high.

  Excavator: Trinity City accounts for 25.

6%, sales increased by 39%.

Excavator industry sales in 201923.

60,000 units, an increase of 14 in ten years.

4%; Trinity sales 6.

10,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 29% far exceeds the industry, and its market share increased to 25.

8%, an increase of 2 per year.

8 points.

Excavator sales have increased faster than expected since the fourth quarter of 2019. Due to the advance of the Spring Festival in 2020, the promotion activities of OEMs have advanced; about July 2020, the “National IV” switchover and the “National III” destocking accelerated.

  Lifting machinery: The sales volume of the industry rebounded rapidly, and the industry sales volume increased by 32% from January to November.

In January-November 2019, the sales volume of the truck crane industry increased by 32% year-on-year, with a negative growth in June-August, and the industry sales growth rate in September-November was 9.

2% / 19.

5% / 33.

7%.

The company’s market share remains in the top three, and infrastructure growth is expected to increase in 2020, supporting truck crane sales.

  Concrete machinery: Sany is a global leader. The concrete pump truck industry will maintain a high growth rate in 2019. The sales volume of mixer trucks will increase rapidly under the background of the severe governance policy. The elimination of old machines and environmental protection substitution will continue to drive growth.

Profitability, asset quality continued to improve, digitalization was accelerated, and intelligent and product R & D companies expanded data and intelligence level construction, labor costs fell, and profitability continued to improve.

Gross profit margin on January 9, 2019 32.

5%, increase by 1 every year.武汉夜网论坛

4pct; net interest rate is 16%, an increase of 3 in ten years.

7pct, period fee cost 12.

5%, the sales / financial expense ratio drops by 1 every year.

4/0.

5 points.

From January to September, the net cash flow from operating activities was 94 trillion, an annual growth of 8%, a record high over the same period, and continued to exceed net profit.

The company expanded research and development of construction machinery products and key components, digital and intelligent technologies and applications.

The first three quarters of research and development expenses were 20 trillion US dollars, an annual increase of 153%.

  Earnings forecast and investment advice earnings forecast remain unchanged. Net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 113/134/149 million US dollars, an increase of 84% / 19% / 11% and a compound growth rate of 31%.

The EPS is 1.

35/1.

61/1.

80 yuan, corresponding to 13/11/10 times the PE.We gradually converted the company’s estimate to 2021 and gave the company 12 times PE in 2021. We raised the company’s market value target to 1800 trillion and the target price from June to December was 21.

5 yuan.

  Risk warnings: Infrastructure real estate investment is less than expected; sales risk of some product industries; financial market fluctuation risk.


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