• There are four reasons why Kitakami Capital opened the buy, buy and buy model.

    Posted on by admin

    There are four reasons why Kitakami Capital opened the “buy, buy and buy” model.

    For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

      Original title: How to open the “buy, buy and buy” mode on the edge of Beijing’s capital Source: Securities Daily Zhao Ziqiang Although there was a certain adjustment in the A-share market on Tuesday, Beijing’s capital also had 71.

    Net sales of 2.8 billion US dollars, but overall, since September last year, Kitakami Capital has opened a buy-buy model in the A-share market.

      ”Securities Daily” reporter passed the straight flush statistics, from September 1, 2019 to January 21, 2019, the total net purchase of Beijing Capital has reached 2810.

    Of the 6.3 billion U.S. dollars, out of the 92 trading days mentioned above, 82 trading days were in a net buying state, accounting for nearly 90%, and the average net inflow amount per trading day reached 30.

    5.5 billion yuan.

      Because the northbound funds are Hong Kong and Chinese domestic capital and international capital that entered the A-share market through the Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect, there is a clear international capital imprint.

    By operating in the market, Kitakami Capital has shown its professional standards and ability to grasp the timing of advances and retreats, which has been praised by investors and professionals, and has gained a market title of “smart money.”

      So why did “smart money” start a continuous buying action on the A-share market after September last year?

      The author believes that there are four reasons for the continued entry of Kitakami funds.

      First, China’s stable development.

    You know that capital is timid and will try its best to avoid turmoil and disputes, as if gold or soared whenever there were events or signs of global stability.

      As a result, financial reform and opening up have continued to deepen, and policy assistance has increased its attractiveness to international capital.

    In recent months, the government has continuously introduced financial reform and opening up.

    On July 20, 2019, the Office 武汉夜网论坛 of the Financial Stability Development Committee of the State Council issued the “Related Interests on Further Expanding the Opening of the Financial Industry”.

    In October 2019, the Securities Regulatory Commission officially cleared the time interruption of foreign equity ratios. From January 1, 2020, April 1, and December 1, respectively, the foreign shares of futures companies, fund management companies, and securities companies were cancelled.Than limit.

    These policies have stabilized investment expectations for international capital and boosted confidence.

      Third, the A-share market has obvious growth advantages.

    Judging from the annual report performance forecast, according to statistics from the flush flush, until January 21, 1437 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have disclosed the 2020 annual report performance 北京spa会所 forecast.

    Among them, companies with positive results (including pre-increasing, continuing profit, turning losses, and slightly increasing) reached 978 companies, accounting for 68.

    06%.

    There were 365 companies with pre-sad performance (including pre-reduction, first loss, slight reduction, continued loss, reduction), accounting for 25.

    40%.

    In the company’s published performance forecast, it can be found that there are 112 companies with an estimated annual net profit of more than 1 billion US dollars, and the number of companies with a predicted net profit doubled to 408.

    The outstanding earning power of A shares is the focus of attracting the attention of all capitals.

      Fourth, A shares are estimated to be low.

    According to the straight flush statistics, as of the close of this Tuesday (January 21), the dynamic price-earnings ratio (TTM) of all A shares was reported at 16.

    68 times, the P / B ratio is 1.

    53 times, which is 111 for the 10-year average since 2010.

    30% and 91.

    30%.

    The market value of A shares in circulation was 188018 in 2010.

    5.1 billion yuan, up to the latest 501438.

    1.7 billion yuan, an increase of 166.

    70%.

    From the above data, it can be found that even if the size of the A-share market is increasing rapidly, its estimated level is guaranteed to be at the historical average of ten years, and the estimated attractiveness is obvious.


  • Shengtong Co. (002599): Steady increase in performance in 19 years Lebo launched expansion

    Posted on by admin

    Shengtong Co. (002599): Steady increase in performance in 19 years Lebo launched expansion
    Company dynamics The company released its 2018 annual report and realized revenue of 18 in real terms.4.4 billion yuan, an increase of 31.4%.Attributable net profit is 1.2.4 billion, an increase of 34.2%, EPS is 0.38 yuan, ROE = 7.86%, the company plans to increase 7 shares for every 10 shares. Matter comments The steady growth of publishing services, the rapid development of quality education and the growth of profits have promoted the steady growth of the company’s comprehensive publishing services business and achieved revenue15.95 trillion, an increase of 30.7%, accounting for 86.48%, still the company’s main source of income; education and training business grew rapidly, achieving revenue2.49 trillion, an increase of 36.4%, the proportion increased by 0.50pct to 13.52%.The consolidated gross profit margin is 19.82%, which is basically the same as the same period of last year. Among them, the publishing and education and training gross margins were 15 respectively.32% (-0.39 points) and 48.61% (+1.04pct), the slight decline in the overall gross profit margin of publishing was mainly due to the increase in raw material prices, and the increase in the gross profit margin of education and training was mainly translated into the increase in the utilization rate of the document growth campus and the establishment of some short-term courses with higher gross margins.The company’s period expense rate increases by 0 every year.68pct to 12.92%, mainly due to the increase in financing borrowings, leading to an increase in the financial expense ratio of more than zero.87pct to 0.90%.The company’s short-term borrowing surplus at the end of the period was 1.09 million yuan, an increase of 165 over the beginning of the period.5%.Initial realization of attributable net profit1.2.4 billion, an increase of 34.2%, net margin is 6.73% (+0.14pct).In terms of business, the net profit of comprehensive publishing services was 71.89 million yuan, an increase of 14.3%, net interest rate 4.51% (-0.65pct); education and training net profit was 52.27 million yuan, an increase of 73.0%, net interest rate is 20.97% (+4.71pct), with a significant increase in profit, with a profit contribution of 42%.The initial deducted non-attributable net profit was 89.53 million yuan, an increase of 19.7%, mainly due to an investment income of 21.57 million yuan, including the sale of 50% of the shares of Korea Lebo to obtain investment income of 8.41 million yuan, the sale of programming cats total 2.11% equity (remaining holdings 1.10%) to obtain investment income of 10.66 million yuan, sell all 3% of the shares held in Little Orange Castle to obtain investment income of 1.56 million yuan.The company expects to achieve a net profit of approximately 10.16 million yuan to 12.2 million yuan in 19Q1, an increase of 0-20%. Lebo Education: The course system has been gradually improved, and the establishment of outlets has accelerated. The Lebo education curriculum system has been continuously improved. The core robot education curriculum has added UARO courses for children aged 4-6, building blocks for lower grades in elementary school, and orders for higher grades in elementary school.Film robots and humanoid robot courses for junior high and high school students, and also launched Scratch, Python programming courses.The company will conduct robotics courses in 19 years.0 upgrade, and vigorously develop programming education and artificial intelligence education.Secondly, LeBao Education accelerates the construction of outlets and sinks channels.As of the end of 18 years, Lebo has 106 directly-operated 杭州桑拿网 stores (+13) and 238 franchise stores (+58) in 25 provinces and municipalities, covering all first- and second-tier cities, involving all third- and fourth-tier developed cities, and the number of documents exceeds 6 Million people.In 19, the company plans to increase the number of directly operated stores by more than 30%, the corresponding lower limit is about 138, and the number of franchised stores will be expanded to about 400.The company’s existing stores are mainly located in first-tier cities. In the future, it will merge the densely woven first-tier city outlets. It is expected that each city will even add 10-20 stores to replace the sinking channels to further develop second- and third-tier cities.Third, improve the competition and rating evaluation system. The company has successfully opened more than 10 well-known 北京桑拿洗浴保健 domestic and foreign youth robot competitions and achieved excellent results.Multi-category events can provide scholars with a wealth of learning and application scenarios.At the same time, the company cooperated with the Industry and Information Publishing Group, a subsidiary of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, to participate in the planning and organization of the “artificial intelligence technology level test”, which has gradually been introduced to the market, and provides proof of the level of the artificial intelligence system’s ability for the advanced education and internship of young people at elementary school level and above., Help stimulate the demand for artificial intelligence learning. Investment suggestion Due to the company’s construction of the Happy Bo outlet, it is expected that the cost of stores and promotional expenses will increase. We lower the attributable net profit for 2019 to 1 to 1.55/1.$ 8.3 billion, and an increase in forecasted net profit attributable to 2 in 2021.2.4 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.48/0.56/0.69 yuan / share (the original 19/20 EPS was 0.53/0.64 yuan / share), corresponding PE is 26/22 / 18X (based on the closing price of 2019/4/11).The company will accelerate the development of quality education sector in 19 years, continuously improve education, and publish a comprehensive service ecosystem of culture.Maintain the “overweight” rating. Risks remind that the growth of publishing business is accelerating, the development of Lebo is less than expected, and the risk of school license qualifications.


  • Guoxin Securities (002736) 2019 Interim Report Review: Steady Growth of Brokerage Business Self-operated Elasticity Drives High Performance

    Posted on by admin

    Guoxin Securities (002736) 2019 Interim Report Review: Steady Growth of Brokerage Business Self-operated Elasticity Drives High Performance

    I. Overview of the Event On August 26, Guosen Securities released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved revenue of 65 in the first half of the year.

    300 million, previously + 61%, net profit attributable to mother 26.

    4 ‰, +124 per year.

    4%, the basic EPS is 0.

    3 yuan / share, expected average ROE is 5.

    2%.

    Second, analyze and judge to grasp the market recovery potential, achieve rapid growth in performance in the first half of the company’s revenue, net profit realized high growth, net profit.

    4 trillion ranks sixth in the industry, maintaining the leading part on the right side of the industry, and the net profit growth rate of the mother is 124.

    4% is better than market expectations.

    Benefiting from the market recovery in the first half of the year, the average daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 5874 million US dollars + 34%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased by 22%. The company’s self-operated income elasticity was maximized and investment income began to increase from the same period last year. 4Increased from US $ 100 million to US $ 1.8 billion, and net income in the second quarter increased by 28% from the previous quarter to continue to maintain a high growth rate, which was the core factor driving the growth of the first half of the year.

    Brokerage + self-employment is a two-wheel drive, which contributes 70% of the revenue. The characteristics of investment transactions highlight the income structure. The company’s self-employment + brokerage business income was dazzling in the first half of the year, with growth rates of 147% and 18%, and the revenue share was 36% And 35%, which together contributed 70% of the revenue, and the elasticity was significantly released under the market warming environment.

    Asset management, investment bank and capital intermediary business incomes appeared in series positions of -9%, -12% and -15%, respectively.

    In terms of self-employment, the investment scale of equity and derivatives in the first half of the year was 134 trillion, accounting for 33% of net capital, and the scale of solid income investment was 732 trillion, accounting for 182% of net capital. The scale was 21 trillion lower than the end of the previous year, an increase of 3.3 billion.yuan.

    In the first half of the year, the scale of equity assets decreased slightly, but self-employment income increased, and investment trading capabilities were outstanding.

    The fixed rate of not more than 15 billion US dollars has been promoted. The company has increased its capital and strived to increase its overall strength. The company’s non-public offering plan is steadily advancing. The proposed capital is not to exceed 15 billion US dollars. The funds are intended to be used to increase its proprietary business, capital intermediation, andDebt repayment and capital increase of subsidiaries.

    It is expected that the company’s capital 武汉夜生活网 strength and capital-based business strength will be significantly enhanced after the completion of the fixed increase.

    At present, the company has sponsored 3 science and technology board companies and 7 queued companies, which are expected to continue to benefit from business growth.

    The brokerage business ranked third in the industry in the first half of the year, and its comprehensive strength is expected to further increase, gradually increasing ROE to 10%.

    Third, investment advice The current brokerage sector is located at PB 1.

    Around 6X, last year’s low-base effect of the securities firm’s performance has continuous certainty, Guoxin Securities currently has a PB of 2.

    1X shows the head premium of broker + investment transaction features, and is expected to be 2 in 2019-2020.

    0X and 1.

    9X, given a recommended rating.

    Fourth, risk warning: self-employment income is less than expected.


  • Sincerity Pharmaceuticals (603811): Slight increase in local product structure continued to optimize

    Posted on by admin

    Sincerity Pharmaceuticals (603811): Slight increase in local product structure continued to optimize
    Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019: the first three quarters achieved operating income4.99 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.92%; net profit attributable to mother is 9916.480,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.31%; net profit of non-attributed mother is 9017.180,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.50%; operating cash flow1.80 ppm, an increase of 98 in ten years.29%. Q3’s revenue growth rate was subdivided, and profitability continued to be optimized.In Q3, the realized income and net profit attributable to mothers were 1, respectively.60 ppm, 30.89 million yuan, the annual growth rate was 8.19%, 18.06%, compared with the first half of the growth rate slightly overlap, mainly due to the decline in intermediate and other businesses.In terms of different products, Q1-Q3 preparation products revenue3.64 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.33%, maintaining a high growth rate; revenue from APIs1.2 billion, down 5 every year.7%; Intermediate and other products realized revenue of 3241.90,000 yuan, down 31 every year.34%.In terms of treatment areas, joint products (mainly the company’s core product glucosamine hydrochloride) have achieved revenue1 in the two major products1.55 ppm, an increase of 40 in ten years.11%; Diuretics (mainly torasemide) achieved revenue of 8519 million, an annual increase of 12.69%.On the profit side, the company’s overall gross profit margin has risen by more than 13%.38 percentages reached 72.77%, mainly because the company further promoted the optimization of product structure brought about by the integration of pharmaceutical preparations and raw materials.Selling expense ratio increased by 9.1 to 38.4%, mainly because the company deeply cultivated the sales network layout, strengthened the company’s pharmaceutical promotion, market development, market management, and market maintenance, etc .; the management expense ratio (including research and development) decreased by 0.2 total to 10.6%, mainly due to the natural increase in management expenses and R & D expansion caused by market expansion.Taken together, the company’s net profit margin increases by 2 every year.1 to 19.9%, stable growth in profitability. The company’s core product, glucosamine chloride, has a large market space, rapid product growth, and continuous deepening of its marketing network, driving the company’s performance to accelerate growth.As the company’s core product, glucosamine hydrochloride replaces other anti-inflammatory and analgesic drugs, repairs the degenerative spine, and fundamentally inhibits the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis. It can improve the treatment effect of arthritis and is small.Glucosamine hydrochloride is widely used in European and American countries to treat early arthritis and maintain joint health. It is a major component of well-known joints, bone health products such as MoveFree and GNC.The proportion of the domestic population over the age of 60 was 17 in 2017.3%, well above the world average of 12.3%, more than 200 million people, and increasing year by year.As the aging problem continues to worsen, arthritis patients will increase exponentially, and the cardiovascular glucosamine market has a bright future. According to estimates from the South, the market growth rate is not less than 20%. Excluding industry factors, the company vigorously promotes core products, continues to optimize marketing channels, through selected regional distributors, continuously does deep academic promotion and corporate branding of fine products, increases sales of high value-added preparation products, and the company’s key varieties of chlorineVolumes and prices of products such as glucosamine preparations rose.At the same time, the company initially acquired Fujian Huakang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in October 2018, allowing the company’s main products to be transferred to the upstream and downstream industrial chains, which is conducive to reducing production costs and enhancing market competitiveness. We think the company is expected to fix it further.The company’s current 19-year PE estimate is 24 times, which is at a low level in the pharmaceutical market. It is estimated to be slightly repaired from the first half of the year. Based on the following reasons, we believe that the company has the potential to further repair the incremental:(Solid), is in the heavy volume phase, and is expected to bring considerable revenue to the company for three years in the future; (2) the company’s preparations and APIs are integrated, which has advantages in the entire industrial chain and has strong profitability; (3) the company’s technology reservesRich, with 69 drug production approval numbers, 4 national new drug varieties, including 3 second-class new drugs and 1 fourth-class new drug, covering multiple fields, laying the cornerstone for the company’s future growth; (4) the company has abundant cash flowExcellent financial indicators; (5) The company’s core products are mainly APIs and OTC drugs, which are less affected by policies. Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 will be 7 respectively.10,000 yuan, 8.9.6 billion, 11.29 trillion, with growth rates of 28%, 28%, and 26%; net profit was 1.3.8 billion, 1.9 billion, 2.500,000 yuan, the growth rate is 42%, 38%, 32%; the budget revenue is 1.16.1.59 and 2.10 yuan, the current expected corresponding estimates are 24.3X, 17.6X, 13.4 times.We believe that the company’s core product, glucosamine 北京桑拿洗浴保健 glucosamine, is benefiting from marketing reforms and other factors. It is in the heavy-duty period. The integration of APIs has significant competitive advantages. The cash flow and other financial indicators are excellent. It has gradually improved and maintained the investment grade of Buy-A. Risk warning: ammonia sugar sales fall short of expectations; product competition is likely to increase profitability.


  • Xiangpiaopiao (603711): The profitability of the juice tea volume market during the replenishment period needs to be improved

    Posted on by admin

    Xiangpiaopiao (603711): The profitability of the juice tea volume market during the replenishment period needs to be improved
    Event: On August 12, the 19-year interim report was disclosed, with operating income of 13.800 million, previously +58.3%, the net profit attributable to the mother is 23.53 million yuan, and the same period last year was -45.59 million yuan.280,000 yuan, 66.58 million yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits. Core views: 1. Fruit juice tea continues to exert its strength, and initial business such as brewing tea is under pressure: Q2 single-quarter company revenue increased by 148.2% to 5.4 trillion, faster than the previous month, mainly due to the second quarter of the fruit juice and tea list contributed 4.1.7 billion, a total of 5 in the first half.8.8 billion in revenue, a phenomenal performance, and other businesses were a drag.In the first half of the year, brew tea juice 2.8% to 7.1 ppm, average performance in the off-season, is expected to be related to the company’s preparation for new packaging listing, destocking, and is still planning a positive growth.Of which the classic series income 4.700 million, Q1 / Q2 revenue growth was 14 respectively.9%, -24.1%; Good material series income 2.40,000 yuan, Q1 / Q2 revenue growth rate were -6.3%, -57.4%.At the same time, the company’s liquid tea revenue decreased to 50 in the first half.6% to 6258.80,000 yuan, a slight expansion from the first quarter, the product is still in the process of adjustment, and the proportion 厦门夜网 is not high. 2. The performance in the first half of the year has improved slightly, and the gross profit margin of juice tea has continued to increase. The peak season of the second half is the key to brewing business: the company’s performance is clear in the busy season, and the current profit is mainly based on traditional brewing.Contribution for half a year.In the second quarter of this year, the company still decreased by 28.43 million yuan, but the average annual increase of more than 82.89 million yuan in the same period has obviously improved, driving the first half of the results to turn a profit.In the first half of the year, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 6pct to 36.97%, mainly due to the increase in the price of cupped tea last year, and the reformation and commissioning of the integrated liquid milk tea production line for juice tea production. The scale effect appears, which has an effect of increasing the overall gross profit margin.We estimate the gross profit margin of juice tea from 23 last year.37% increased to about 32%. In the second quarter, the freezer display and promotion costs were mainly reflected in the gross profit margin. The transfer scale increased, and the gross profit margin still has room to rise.Over the same period, the sales expense ratio decreased by 8.1pct to 28.4%, we judge that the increase in liquid tea in the first half of the year is not only a small contribution to the beverage business, but the increase in advertising costs of new products is not much. New endorsement items in the second half may increase, it should be compared in the dimension dimension; managementExpense rate increased by 2.9pct, mainly the new equity incentive expenses of 3180 in the first half of the year.90,000 yuan, accounting for revenue 2.3%; financial expenses increased by 0.15pct, mainly due to the company’s payment to suppliers and advertisers, the increase in bills payable resulted in increased bill costs. 3. Juice tea innovation takes over, issuing convertible bonds to expand production capacity to support future development: Juice tea was launched in July last year, mainly in three flavors, including kumquat lemon. In May this year, it also launched the “Matcha Latte”.”White peach oolong” and “toffee milk red” and other three types of light milk tea flavors, the market feedback is good.In the first half of the year, the company’s fruit tea sales rate was only 12.6%, accounting for only 48% of its own outlets.9%, the market still has a lot of room for cargo.And the company’s maximum liquid tea production capacity reached 94 in the first half.1%. In the short term, the production capacity of 2 Jiangmen and 3 liquid tea production lines at the Huzhou plant will be gradually reached. This will support 21 years of production. In the long term, convertible bonds will be used for capacity construction in Chengdu and Tianjin.Provide capacity support for development. 4. Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 0.87/1.08/1.42 yuan, corresponding estimates are 44/35/27 times, maintain the “recommended” level! 5. Risk warning: New product promotion is less than expected, raw materials increase, food safety issues.


  • Yingliu (603308) Company Research: Two-machine blade 100 billion US dollar track has been made in China since then

    Posted on by admin

    Yingliu (603308) Company Research: Two-machine blade 100 billion US dollar track has been made in China since then

    First, let’s start with a question: Why is Buffett willing to privatize PCC for 37.2 billion US dollars?

    PCC is a global leader in two-machine superalloy blades with an estimated market value of 500 billion.

    The first is: 1) The 100 billion US dollar track constructed by two high-temperature alloy blades.

    Two-machine superalloy blades are the first key piece of aero engine, and the global market size is expected to reach 150 billion US dollars in the next 10 years.

    2) High barrier characteristics of the two-machine blade track: the demand side continues to grow and supplements the supply side with a small number of dispersions, resulting in a steady growth in the profit side.

    High 杭州桑拿网 technical barriers; slow technology changes, and difficult opportunities for cornering overtaking; difficult certification; global two-machine customers attach great importance to the long-term and stability of strategic cooperation with blade qualified suppliers.

    3) The two-machine blade has a good business model.

    Investment casting is essentially a capital-intensive industry, coupled with high technical barriers, resulting in fewer new entrants.

    PCC continued to grow based on the downstream two-machine orders, and achieved good operating stability and sustainability with its monopoly market share, and had good cash flow.

    From 2006 to 2015, PCC’s net profit and operating cash flow CAGR reached 17.

    78% and 24.

    85%.

    Second, why can Yingliu be cut into the 100 billion US dollar track?

    First of all, in order 武汉夜生活网 to change the monopoly situation of a very small number of high-temperature alloy blade suppliers for a long time, major international two-machine manufacturers such as GE have actively cultivated and released new qualified suppliers to enrich the supplier system and enhance the security of the supply chain.

    We believe that Yingliu is one of the few companies in the world where the “technology, equipment, quality and scale” of the two-machine precision casting field meet the strict requirements of companies such as GE, and has mature overseas customers in the fields of construction machineryStrategic Supply Experience.

    At present, the company’s two models of two-machine high-temperature alloy blades have passed inspections by domestic and international manufacturers, and it is a fact that they have entered the international two-machine customer supplier system.

    Third, in benchmarking against PCC, we believe that Yingliu has successfully entered the global two-machine giant supply system. The order and revenue of two-machine products are expected to continue to rise, and its profitability will also be significantly improved in the future.

    The first is: 1) Global scale: Yingliu has entered the global two-machine blade this annual track of 15 billion U.S. dollars, and has successfully cut into the global two-machine giant supplier system. In the future, orders will continue to rise in revenue scale.It is a natural reflection of many core competitiveness such as the company’s asset scale, technical strength, and customer experience.

    2) Domestic size: Two-machine high-temperature alloy blades are among the “two-machine special” breakthroughs and “neck neck” technology breakthroughs to achieve independent and controllable key breakthrough directions.

    The company undertakes the research and production tasks of two major special projects and key models of the state, and develops and produces high-temperature alloy blades and other products for China Aviation Development and China Reignite Development, which will directly benefit from the increase in the volume of military aviation engines and gas turbines.

    3) Future development: adhere to the development strategy of “industry chain extension, value chain extension”.

    The initial development of the industrial chain (to the parent alloy material end and the finished product end) and the increase in the value of the single-piece blade product will bring momentum to the company’s future development.

    In addition, there are reserve projects for small turbo engines and helicopters.

    We expect net profit for 2019/2020/2021 to be 1.

    34/2.

    14/3.

    04 ppm, corresponding to the current estimates of 58X, 36X, 25X, with a “Buy” rating.

    Risk Warning: The orders for the blades of the two machines are lower than expected; the development of the traditional casting business exceeds expectations; the assumptions of the market size calculation of the two-machine superalloy blades may deviate from the actual situation.


  • Sany Heavy Industry (600031) Comments: Performance in line with expectations; raise market cap target to 180 billion yuan

    Posted on by admin

    Sany Heavy Industry (600031) Comments: Performance in line with expectations; raise market cap target to 180 billion yuan

    The company released a performance forecast, which is expected to realize a net profit attributable to mothers of US $ 10.8-111.8 billion in 2019, an increase of 77% -93% each year. It is expected to deduct non-net profit of US $ 10-111.2 billion, an increase of 66% -86%.

      Comment on the performance of the hub slightly exceeds market consensus expectations, in line with our expectations; 2020 performance progress continues to exceed expectations. The company’s 2019 performance pre-increasing center is a net profit of US $ 11.3 billion, and the previous wind consensus is expected to be a net profit of US $ 11 billion. The company’s pre-increasingThe performance center slightly exceeded market consensus.

      In 2019, the company’s sales of excavation machinery, concrete machinery, hoisting machinery, piling machinery and other equipment continued to increase, and profitability increased significantly.

    Driven by the demand for infrastructure, the country has strengthened environmental governance, the demand for equipment renewal has increased, and the artificial replacement effect has driven the construction of the machinery industry.

    The demand for renewal maintains a high industry boom, and the share of Sany City is still increasing in the construction machinery industry: benefiting from downstream replacement demand, infrastructure support, manual replacement and other factors, the construction machinery industry maintains high growth.

    The current industry competition pattern is better than the previous cycle high.

      Excavator: Trinity City accounts for 25.

    6%, sales increased by 39%.

    Excavator industry sales in 201923.

    60,000 units, an increase of 14 in ten years.

    4%; Trinity sales 6.

    10,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 29% far exceeds the industry, and its market share increased to 25.

    8%, an increase of 2 per year.

    8 points.

    Excavator sales have increased faster than expected since the fourth quarter of 2019. Due to the advance of the Spring Festival in 2020, the promotion activities of OEMs have advanced; about July 2020, the “National IV” switchover and the “National III” destocking accelerated.

      Lifting machinery: The sales volume of the industry rebounded rapidly, and the industry sales volume increased by 32% from January to November.

    In January-November 2019, the sales volume of the truck crane industry increased by 32% year-on-year, with a negative growth in June-August, and the industry sales growth rate in September-November was 9.

    2% / 19.

    5% / 33.

    7%.

    The company’s market share remains in the top three, and infrastructure growth is expected to increase in 2020, supporting truck crane sales.

      Concrete machinery: Sany is a global leader. The concrete pump truck industry will maintain a high growth rate in 2019. The sales volume of mixer trucks will increase rapidly under the background of the severe governance policy. The elimination of old machines and environmental protection substitution will continue to drive growth.

    Profitability, asset quality continued to improve, digitalization was accelerated, and intelligent and product R & D companies expanded data and intelligence level construction, labor costs fell, and profitability continued to improve.

    Gross profit margin on January 9, 2019 32.

    5%, increase by 1 every year.武汉夜网论坛

    4pct; net interest rate is 16%, an increase of 3 in ten years.

    7pct, period fee cost 12.

    5%, the sales / financial expense ratio drops by 1 every year.

    4/0.

    5 points.

    From January to September, the net cash flow from operating activities was 94 trillion, an annual growth of 8%, a record high over the same period, and continued to exceed net profit.

    The company expanded research and development of construction machinery products and key components, digital and intelligent technologies and applications.

    The first three quarters of research and development expenses were 20 trillion US dollars, an annual increase of 153%.

      Earnings forecast and investment advice earnings forecast remain unchanged. Net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 113/134/149 million US dollars, an increase of 84% / 19% / 11% and a compound growth rate of 31%.

    The EPS is 1.

    35/1.

    61/1.

    80 yuan, corresponding to 13/11/10 times the PE.We gradually converted the company’s estimate to 2021 and gave the company 12 times PE in 2021. We raised the company’s market value target to 1800 trillion and the target price from June to December was 21.

    5 yuan.

      Risk warnings: Infrastructure real estate investment is less than expected; sales risk of some product industries; financial market fluctuation risk.


  • Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Q1 Performance Preview Comment: Q1 Performance Forecast Exceeds Expected Growth Ability to Be Validated Again

    Posted on by admin

    Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Q1 Performance Preview Comment: Q1 Performance Forecast Exceeds Expected Growth Ability to Be Validated Again
    This report reads: The company announced the main operating data, revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2019 exceeded market expectations. The current price of Moutai is stable, and tight supply and demand will not change in the short term.It is expected that 重庆耍耍网 the target growth will be achieved through the dual promotion of direct sales ratio and product structure. Investment points: Investment advice: Q1 performance forecast exceeds market expectations. The market believes that the progress of Q1 investment has doubts about whether it can maintain high growth. The company once again proved the growth ability with data.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is maintained at 33.36, 40.33, 47.52 yuan, due to the certainty of performance growth, raised the target price to 1,000 yuan, corresponding to 30XPE in 2019, increase holdings. Moutai Q1 shipments are estimated at 8,300 tons.The actual shipment in 2018Q1 was 8,745 tons, and the caliber of the report was 7,500 tons. According to channel feedback, Feitian Maotai did not resend the goods stranded in 2018 in Q1 of 2019. The actual shipment is expected to be basically consistent with the caliber of the report.Revenue in 2019Q1 will increase by 20%. Assuming the same ton price, it is expected that the shipment will exceed 9,000 tons, which is more than the actual shipment in 2018Q1.Taking into account that after the Spring Festival the price of Moutai did not fall but rose, the direct supply actually re-flowed to the market, and may be sold directly to large group customers.Assume that the ton price has increased by 10% due to the increase in direct sales. It is estimated that the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2019 will be 8,300 tons. The elasticity of revenue growth in 2019 is due to the increase in direct sales ratios and the growth of non-standard products.Channel feedback for non-standard Q1 has not yet been ramped up, and its impact may be reflected in the quarterly increase in refined wine revenue at the end of 2018.Assume that the increase in income is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of self-employment, which will increase the overall volume of Moutai liquor by 10% and the price by 10%.In terms of advance receipts, considering that the non-standard initial cargo payment has been completed at the end of March, and that the spring candy period has been scheduled for April to June, it is expected that the Q1 advance receipts will continue to increase. The profit growth rate is 10 pct higher than the income growth rate. It is expected that the decrease in selling expenses in 2019 will be accompanied by a downward adjustment, and the performance will be elastically transmitted.The 2018 annual report showed a negative increase in selling expenses. We believe that the decrease in expenses may be 成都桑拿网 related to the control of the release of the series of wine expenses, or it may be the result of the cancellation of 437 dealers.Due to the funding requirements of Moutai, Moutai has strict internal controls. It is expected that sales expenses will still decrease, and the reduction and reduction of 3pct will be implemented in April. The profit elasticity in 2019 is still high. Risk reminder: The rapid increase in the price of Moutai brings pressure on public opinion and policy risks.


  • Rimage (603730) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Third Quarterly Report Exceeds Expected Results

    Posted on by admin

    Rimage (603730) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Third Quarterly Report Exceeds Expected Results

    The company achieved revenue in the third quarter of 201913.

    19 trillion, ten years +9.

    7%, +7 from the previous quarter.

    8%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

    71 ppm, +19 a year.

    6%, +15.

    5%, exceeding market expectations.

    Increase the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 1.

    62/1.

    96/2.

    25 yuan (was 1).

    47/1.

    77/2.

    16 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating.

    Third-quarter results exceeded expectations, and Mexican plant operations improved significantly.

    In the third quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 13.

    1.9 billion, ten years +9.

    7%, +7 from the previous quarter.

    8%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

    71 ppm, +19 a year.

    6%, +15.

    5%, exceeding market expectations.

    In the third quarter, the company’s net profit attributable to mothers / QoQ achieved rapid growth, mainly benefiting from the significant improvement in the operation of the Motus Mexico plant and achieving profit.

    The company’s third quarter gross profit was 32.

    2%, an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.

    4pcts; each expense ratio totals 11.

    7%, down 2 from the previous month.

    6pcts, significantly improved operating efficiency.

    The acquisition of Motus strengthens the leadership level and promotes global deep integration.

    In 2018, the company became the world’s largest supplier of automotive sun visors by acquiring Motus, the second largest sun visor company in North America.

    The company vigorously promotes the deep integration of the Motus business: 1) Optimizing the global production layout, adopting the local production of Motus Mexico’s factory floor sun visor and local production of the central controller of the ceiling to resist the risk of empire trade disputes; 2) optimizing the procurement channels, taking advantage of scale and reducingCost of outsourced accessories such as light bulbs; 3) Complementary advantages of equipment and molds, increase the automation rate of production lines, 深圳spa会所 increase the self-production rate of molds and equipment, optimize production efficiency and equipment mold costs; 4) achieve cross-penetration of different businesses and customersIt is expected that Motus will penetrate the supply chains of European customers (Benz, Volkswagen, Peugeot, etc.) and North American customers (Toyota, Lexus, Subaru, etc.) to expand its supporting product categories.

    Copying the “Amami” model, the category expansion is worth looking forward to.

    The company’s sun visor business is excellent in operation and management, and has established a mature global supporting and synchronous research and development capability. Its penetration rate in the North American universal supply chain system has increased from about 60% in 2011 to about 70% in 2018.

    Through in-depth support for GM, the company has established a good product reputation in the North American market, accelerating penetration of Ford and Chrysler; and began to enter the European market through the acquisition of Motus.

    At the same time, the company’s products have also expanded from sun visors to head restraints and ceiling central controllers.

    The company is expected to continue to replicate the “Rami” model of sun visor on new products. Among them, the headrest business has been fully supported by North America, and the revenue of the ceiling central controller business has continued to rise.

    Risk factors: Global automobile sales are below expectations; Motus integration is below expectations; new customer expansion is below expectations.

    Investment suggestion: The company benefited from improved management of Mexico’s Motus in the third quarter, and its operating efficiency improved significantly. It raised its 2019/20/21 earnings per share forecast to 1.62/1.

    96/2.

    25 yuan (previous forecast was 1.)

    47/1.

    77/2.

    16 yuan).

    Considering the consolidation of the global leader in the company’s sunshade business, the integration effect on Motus has begun to appear, and strives to continuously expand new customers and new products through its own reputation and Motus channels, and maintain a “buy” rating.


  • Good Mrs. (603848): Q1’s stable and diversified channel layout advances

    Posted on by admin

    Good Mrs. (603848): Q1’s stable and diversified channel layout advances

    Event: The company announced the first quarter report of 2019 and realized operating income in the first quarter2.

    64 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.

    27%; net profit attributable to mother is 5070.

    0.7 million yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.

    37%; deducting non-profit increased by 5 in ten years.

    33%.

    Comments: 1. Stable revenue in the first quarter, channel and category development are expected to help it gradually increase its income steadily earlier in the Spring Festival this year, as well as the impact of the overall weak consumer environment in the first quarter. Q1’s revenue has been basically stable, including a significant improvement over the past three months.
    Initially, we continue to be optimistic about the company’s development on the channel and category side: expansion, continuous refinement of offline channels, and promotion of channel sinking, strategic integration of the good wife brand and the Colleen brand, and use of the existing channels of the wife to accelerate the promotion of Colleen Smart LockLayout; gradually, strengthen the e-commerce and engineering channels. It is expected that the e-commerce channels will continue to increase in 19 years. The engineering channels are expected to gradually 成都桑拿网 increase in volume. Colleeni’s smart door locks increase sales in offline and online channels.

    In Q1, bills receivable and accounts receivable amounted to 73.35 million yuan, an increase of 170% from the end of the year.

    Net cash flows from operating activities decrease by 38 each year.

    26%.

    2. The profit optimization of smart products increased the gross profit margin, and the sales expense ratio increased. The overall gross profit margin of Q1 was 46.

    09%, an increase of 6 a year.

    57 points.

    We believe that the expected increase in gross profit margin is that through the expansion of the company’s smart clothes dryer business scale, the gross profit margin of smart home products has steadily increased, and the gross profit margin of smart home products has increased in 18 years.

    4pct to 42.

    3%, it is expected that there will still be room for improvement in the future; at the same time, the existing company’s smart lock business is still in the initial development stage, and the gross profit margin in the later period is also expected to gradually increase with the scale.

    Q1 sales, management + research and development, and financial expense ratios have tripled.

    35pct, 0.

    94 points, 0

    04pct; net interest rate 19.

    2%, increase by 1 every year.

    1pct.

    3. Accelerate the diversified channel layout in 19 years and maintain the “Prudent Recommendation-A” rating. The company continues to be optimistic about the company’s leading position in the intelligent drying industry. The revenue end follows the development of retail, e-commerce and engineering channels, and high-single value smart dryingAccelerated alternatives to traditional products for clothes machines are expected to achieve steady growth; Colleen Smart Locks is strategically integrated with the Good Wife brand to gradually increase synergy effects.

    At the same time, actively explore new retail models such as cross-border cooperation in household products.

    On the profit side, the scale effect of the company’s smart products has gradually become apparent, the operating efficiency has continued to be optimized, and the overall profit expectations are stable and better.

    Expected 2019?
    The net profit attributable to mothers will be 3 in 2021.

    1.7 billion, 3.

    7.7 billion, 4.

    38 ppm, an increase of 22%, 19%, and 16% each year. At present, the PE is expected to be 28x in 19 years, maintaining the “prudential recommendation-A” rating.

    Risk reminder: industry competition intensifies risks, new brand development falls short of expectations